Monday, August 21, 2017

20 major threats to global economy in long term

20 MAJOR RISKS TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE COMING YEARS (LONG TERM)



1. Most people will stop buying cars in a decade-and-a-half ( a prediction that 95 percent of all US passenger miles traveled will be addressed by fleets, not individuals, by 2030).

2. People will increase renting of assets (over buying these) because they will never be sure of where they would be living a few years hence.

3. The cost of commute will become the 'next telecom' (virtually free, that is).

4. Most cars will be made from recycled steel, as a result of which, ore companies will go belly-up.

5. The large steel sector debt will not be able to be returned to banks.

6. Electric cars, with around 18 moving parts compared with 10,000 for the usual petrol-driven variety, would accelerate the death of the automobile components industry.

7. The demise of the auto component industry will affect the global alloys steel sector (including ore and ferro alloys).

8. Oil behemoths will not be able to repay their loans if oil consumption declined (elimination unlikely).

9. Electric vehicles will come with an unlimited warranty. Which means that after you once buy a vehicle, you would not need to buy another, ever.

10. Oil-based economies (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Nigeria etc) will go into a crisis.

11. Some of the funding coming out of these countries (read what you will into this) will disappear and the world will become a more peaceful place.

12. Cash-rich automotive lubricant companies will discover there is nothing to really lubricate.

13. 3D printing will even out the wage arbitrage between developed and developing nations.

14. Robotisation (or artificial intelligence) will clean out jobs (as it has in the banking sector, where business has grown disproportionately faster than recruitment)

15. A number of skills will become obsolete (microsurgical, for instance) because a robot will do it better.

16. Renewable energy will kick-start a long-term coal decline.

17. Large coal behemoths employing thousands will file for bankruptcy (already happening).

18. Banks will become a concept rather than a place, banks will become more about systems than people.

19. The world will move towards deflation arising out of an abundance of money and relatively limited spending.

20. The new retirement age will become 50 years (average).

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